Peak Oil is a theory introduced by M. King Hubbert in 1956. Working as a geologist for Shell Oil, Hubbert created a bell curve illustrating the discovery and production rates of crude oil. Oil is a finite resource and as such it will have a beginning, middle and end. Hubbert's bell curve showed the usage of this resource. Whether discussing a single oil well or the oil supplies in an entire country, Hubbert discovered that the bell curve correctly demonstrates the discovery and the production of oil. The production of oil is a mirrored image of the discovery, following the discovery chart after a slight delay due to the set-up of equipment and procedures for the oil's extraction.
Application of the Peak Oil Theory – Is the World Running Out of Oil?
From Hubbert's observations, he was able to track the discovery of oil and predict the production rates. He noticed that the peak in production occurred roughly 40 years after the peak in discovery. Based on this information, he predicted that US oil production would peak in the 1960s and he was correct. World discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s, so following Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory, the peak in production would occur around the year 2000. After 2000, Hubbert would expect oil production to decline and prices to increase.
Peak Oil News states that, "Today we consume around four times as much oil as we discover. If we apply Hubbert's Peak to world oil production, we estimate that approximately half of all oil that will be recovered, has been recovered, and oil production may reach a peak in the near future, or perhaps already has." When oil reaches its peak production, production slows and then sharply falls. Prices will increase because of the lowered production and we have seen sharp increases in recent years.
Imagining a World Without Oil – Replacing Oil Before the Oils Wells are Dry
In addition to the gasoline in our cars and heating oil used in homes and businesses, oil is an everyday part of our lives. Man-made fabrics and carpet fibers are often a made from petrochemicals, a bi-product of the refining process of petroleum. Petrochemicals are also used to make soapless detergents that are used in dishwashers and laundry detergents, bandages and medical equipment, compact discs, garbage bags, rubber soled shoes, medicines such as Acetylsalicylic acid, ink dyes, candle wax, milk cartons, paint, make-up and plastics. Fertilizers and pesticides used to increase crop production are created with chemicals from petroleum products. These chemicals lower the cost of food, increasing the amount of food available for consumption.
The vast majority of oil is consumed as fuel, so once an alternative energy source is developed, widely accepted and used, our consumption of oil will be considerably reduced. However, our dependence on oil and the bi-products of the oil refining process are much more complex than a simple fuel. No matter how far reaching our dependence, the Earth is filled with brilliant minds capable of developing alternatives when given the opportunity and freedom to do so.
Oil has served us well. We have used it to heat our homes, to transport food quickly and efficiently from the farm to the table, to create a global world from a local one and to provide jobs for millions of workers across the globe. Oil has served a noble purpose helping to raise the modern standard of living to previously unimaginable levels, but has also produced some unintended negative environmental effects.
The time of oil is over, whether we want it to be or not. We can continue to bleed the Earth dry, leaving ourselves open to disaster when production stops, or we can slowly wean ourselves from this seemingly incessant need. Oil is no longer an environmental issue; replacing oil is simply a matter of survival.
Source:
Paleontological Research Institution: Oil and Everyday Use (accessed February 22, 2011).
End Oil: Uses of Oil (accessed February 22, 2011).
Chasity Goddard - Chasity Goddard holds a BA degree from the University of TN. Her wide-ranging interests and research skills pull her in various ...
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